Outlook

We are heavily committed to implementing the strategic guidelines set out in the 2023-2026 Plan, leveraging on the distinctive traits of our business model and on the proven ability to deal with unfavourable economic cycles by turning criticalities into opportunities

The scenario for the rest of the financial year will be impacted by the uncertainty deriving from the increasing geopolitical risks and the policies that the new US Administration is likely to implement. The imposition of duties on international markets could further weaken the European economies’ growth and dampen the disinflationary process in progress. Monetary policies should in any case remain accommodative for at least the first half of 2025. 

The Mediobanca Group confirms its strategic vision and the trajectory outlined in the 2023-26 Strategic Plan “One Brand-One Culture” based on:

  • High and above-average growth due to the divisions’ specialized and distinctive positioning;
  • High capital generation;
  • Distribution policy at best sector levels, with low execution risk.

Highlights of FY 24-25 should include the following:

  • The ongoing strengthening of the distribution structure and the healthy commercial activity in Wealth Management (WM) will drive growth in TFAs, with NNM expected to reach €9-10bn for the year, while the selective asset growth and optimization activity will enable RWAs to be reduced further, even with the introduction of the CRR III framework;
  • Revenues from banking businesses are expected to grow moderately, underpinned by the strong, low double-digit growth in fees, driven by WM and the CIB capital-light services; net interest income will remain resilient, in the second half of the financial year in particular, with the growth in Consumer Finance offsetting the lower yields on other assets;
  • The cost/income ratio should stand at 44%, with the ambitious investment plan to deliver growth being implemented with increasing efficiency;
  • The cost of risk is expected to be around 55 bps, also leveraging the substantial overlays set aside;
  • Earnings per share (EPS) are expected to increase by 6-8%;1
  • With reference to shareholder remuneration, DPS is expected to grow, with the cash payout confirmed at 70% (with an interim dividend to be paid in May 2025 and the balance in November 2025), plus the new €385m share buyback scheme to be implemented.2
  • Capital generation is expected to be high, able to take the CET1 ratio as at the year-end to 15.5%-16%.3

1 Including the cancellation of approx. 80% of the shares to be acquired as part of the €385m buyback to be implemented in FY 24-25.
2  Based on the share buyback scheme included in the Strategic Plan 2023-26, to be implemented in FY 2024-25, authorized by the ECB on 7 October 2024 and by shareholders at the Annual General Meeting held on 28 October 2024.
3  Including the 70% dividend payout ratio and prior to additional share buybacks which will be disclosed annually.